Making targeted weather forecasts highly available

<div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">TWC acquisition perfect complement to IBM’s Deep Thunder</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm74TSq2LDAHadKJWWj_q6JzPDGVDYE08YP_FXOGA70ibqmtnUxathMxd4iAWVxS5NGqbpcV97EFsvAljWxgd5uws8RWj-fSabM2TH3ZLFlkVDiy5iCCYseOye-NyO-mpd-M9ULraWRHKm/s1600/ltreinish.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm74TSq2LDAHadKJWWj_q6JzPDGVDYE08YP_FXOGA70ibqmtnUxathMxd4iAWVxS5NGqbpcV97EFsvAljWxgd5uws8RWj-fSabM2TH3ZLFlkVDiy5iCCYseOye-NyO-mpd-M9ULraWRHKm/s1600/ltreinish.jpg" /></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Editor’s note: This article is by <a href="http://researcher.watson.ibm.com/researcher/view.php?person=us-lloydt" target="_blank">Lloyd Treinish</a>, IBM Distinguished Engineer, Chief Scientist -- Environmental Modelling, Weather and Deep Thunder, IBM Research</span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Blue skies. Not just a perfect day for a picnic. But it’s also the term utilities use to describe a grid that’s perfectly balanced with energy from solar, wind, and other sources, or free of disruptions from a storm. With IBM’s acquisition of The Weather Company closing <a href="http://www.ibm.com/blogs/think/2016/01/29/ibm-and-the-weather-company-a-next-generation-iot-platform-for-enterprises/">last month</a>, utility companies could soon use TWC’s size, scale and expertise, and my team’s Deep Thunder precision forecasting, to predict those blue skies – and what they can do to rebalance their loads for days that aren’t so perfect. And that’s just one industry example.</span><br /><a name="more"></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">IBM’s been in the weather business for decades. We delivered the first <a href="https://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/exhibits/701/701_intro.html">701</a> “Electronic Data Processing Machines” to the US Weather Bureau in 1955, and got into the science with work on the mathematical and computational techniques for weather modelling in the mid-1960s. In the 1990s, several years after I joined IBM, my colleagues and I worked with NOAA to deploy weather models to help support forecasting during the Summer Olympic Games in Atlanta. That work would later evolve into what would become Deep Thunder. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/ibm100/us/en/icons/deepthunder/">Deep Thunder</a> is great at localized predictions for significant weather events. For example, our prediction for winter storm Jonas in New York City for Saturday, January 23 was close to the actual snowfall.</span><br /><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; margin-left: .4pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 0in; mso-table-layout-alt: fixed; mso-yfti-tbllook: 191; width: 402px;"> <tbody><tr style="height: 13.25pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;"> <td style="background: #4040C2; border-bottom: solid white 3.0pt; border: solid white 1.0pt; height: 13.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid white 3.0pt; padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 125.8pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="color: white; font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Snowfall (Inches)</span></b></div></td> <td style="background: #4040C2; border-bottom: solid white 3.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid white 1.0pt; border-top: solid white 1.0pt; height: 13.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid white 3.0pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid white .75pt; padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 58.7pt;" valign="top" width="78"><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="color: white; font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Measured</span></b></div></td> <td style="background: #4040C2; border-bottom: solid white 3.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid white 1.0pt; border-top: solid white 1.0pt; height: 13.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid white 3.0pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid white .75pt; padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 117.0pt;" valign="top" width="156"><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="color: white; font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Deep Thunder Forecasts</span></b></div></td> </tr><tr style="height: 10.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;"> <td style="background: #E1E1E1; border-top: none; border: solid white 1.0pt; height: 10.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid white 3.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid white 3.0pt; padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 125.8pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Central Park</span></div></td> <td style="background: #E1E1E1; border-bottom: solid white 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid white 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 10.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid white 3.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid white 3.0pt; padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 58.7pt;" valign="top" width="78"><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">26.8</span></div></td> <td style="background: #E1E1E1; border-bottom: solid white 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid white 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 10.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid white 3.0pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid white 3.0pt; padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 117.0pt;" valign="top" width="156"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">22.0</span><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"></span></div></td> </tr><tr style="height: 13.55pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;"> <td style="background: #EFEFEF; border-top: none; border: solid white 1.0pt; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid white .75pt; padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 125.8pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">JFK</span></div></td> <td style="background: #EFEFEF; border-bottom: solid white 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid white 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid white .75pt; padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 58.7pt;" valign="top" width="78"><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">30.5</span></div></td> <td style="background: #EFEFEF; border-bottom: solid white 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid white 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.55pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid white .75pt; padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 117.0pt;" valign="top" width="156"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">20.2</span><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"></span></div></td> </tr><tr style="height: 13.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;"> <td style="background: #E1E1E1; border-top: none; border: solid white 1.0pt; height: 13.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid white .75pt; padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 125.8pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">LaGuardia</span></div></td> <td style="background: #E1E1E1; border-bottom: solid white 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid white 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid white .75pt; padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 58.7pt;" valign="top" width="78"><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">27.9</span></div></td> <td style="background: #E1E1E1; border-bottom: solid white 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid white 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid white .75pt; padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 117.0pt;" valign="top" width="156"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">24.5</span><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"></span></div></td> </tr><tr style="height: 13.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"> <td style="background: #EFEFEF; border-top: none; border: solid white 1.0pt; height: 13.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid white .75pt; padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 125.8pt;" valign="top" width="168"><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Newark</span></div></td> <td style="background: #EFEFEF; border-bottom: solid white 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid white 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid white .75pt; padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 58.7pt;" valign="top" width="78"><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">28.1</span></div></td> <td style="background: #EFEFEF; border-bottom: solid white 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid white 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.25pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid white .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid white .75pt; padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 117.0pt;" valign="top" width="156"><div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">20.0</span><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"></span></div></td> </tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Deep Thunder made these predictions by using advanced physics and sophisticated use of a diversity of environmental data to develop high resolution, short-term forecasts. But the real power for business is how Deep Thunder can drive “coupled models,” which use the latest in machine learning and cognitive computing to predict the impact of weather. Utilities and municipalities, though, want to know not only how much snow is going to fall, but also how much wind power can they produce <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">and</i> use, or when and where pollution levels will have effects on people’s health.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/cnaAL7wUzPw/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cnaAL7wUzPw?feature=player_embedded" width="560"></iframe></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">IBM is working with <span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif;">p</span>ower companies to combine micro weather forecasts with detailed local data to help predict where power outages will likely occur.</span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><table align="right" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; margin-left: 6.75pt; margin-right: 6.75pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .5pt; mso-border-insideh: .5pt solid white; mso-border-insidev: .5pt solid white; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-table-anchor-horizontal: margin; mso-table-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-table-left: right; mso-table-lspace: 9.0pt; mso-table-overlap: never; mso-table-rspace: 9.0pt; mso-table-top: 18.1pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;"> <tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"> <td style="border: solid white 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid white .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 2.25in;" valign="top" width="216"><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-element-anchor-horizontal: margin; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 9.0pt; mso-element-left: right; mso-element-top: 18.1pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #7f7f7f; font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Putting IBM Research together with TWC is a bit like a neuroscientist working with a brain surgeon. Different but complementary skills steeped in a deep understanding of the science. My team of Ph.D. meteorologists, physicists, mathematicians and computer scientists speak the same language as TWC’s meteorologists (we’re all weather geeks at heart). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are all looking forward to doing great things, together.</span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-element-anchor-horizontal: margin; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 9.0pt; mso-element-left: right; mso-element-top: 18.1pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #7f7f7f; font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">– Lloyd Treinish</span></i></div></td> </tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Pin-point predictions for everyone</span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Where physics and model coupling is our strength, size and scale is TWC’s sweet spot. They provide around-the-clock forecasts to industries from aviation to broadcast, and millions of consumers with high performance computing and cloud-based delivery. I envision a point in the near future where a consortium of utility companies, across multiple metropolitan areas, can couple TWC’s forecasts with Deep Thunder’s targeted models – driving our Outage Prediction and Response Optimization (OPRO) technology to determine, days ahead of time, where and when to share their repair crews so that the power can be restored from damage due to severe weather as soon as the storm passes.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And as weather events make a greater impact on our lives, businesses and industries not obviously in need of forecasts want something more than just weather. For example, a farmer wanting to reduce how much irrigation is needed, yet maximize crop yield, needs to understand the intensity and timing of rain, and the soil moisture. Deep Thunder can help do it, but in order to apply this idea to farms around the world, TWC’s industrial-scale forecast production is needed. As an initial step, my team prototyped a version of Deep Thunder, using IBM BlueMix on SoftLayer, that can be “spun up” at arbitrary locations and automatically configure itself to the local geography and weather. This way atmospheric scientists aren’t the only ones who can run a forecast for public broadcast or for a business, or analyze past weather events that had significant impact.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Future Forecasting With IoT and Mobile</span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mobile devices and sensors are everywhere. But there are still too many variables to consider when trying to add reliable data, for example, from automatic windshield wipers or pressure sensors in smartphones to improve rainfall prediction. We need more sophisticated calibration to integrate such measurements. But there's tremendous potential. IBM and TWC’s coupled resources can now explore what was previously speculation, from high resolution forecasts for your local TV news, to a utility company investing in its next wind farm expansion. And perhaps soon, how to integrate IoT-generated weather measurements.</span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b>TED at IBM: <span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif;">This Weather Forec<span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif;">asting Mod<span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif;">el is Actually Accurate</span></span></span></b> </span></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/aGrKIjreEMY/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/aGrKIjreEMY?feature=player_embedded" width="560"></iframe></div></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="color: red; font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "helvneue light for ibm" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">IBM Research and TWC will host the 2016 IBM Weather and Environmental Sciences Conference from April 5-7 at the Thomas J. Watson Research Center in Yorktown Heights, NY. The conference is a gathering of researchers, developers, and business leaders to set strategy for the development of scientific and technical advancements related to weather and environmentally-sensitive services and business opportunities. Watch this space for more information, soon. </span></i></div>

analytics deep thunder environment Making targeted weather forecasts highly available

TWC acquisition perfect complement to IBM’s Deep Thunder Editor’s note: This article is by Lloyd Treinish , IBM Distinguished Engineer, Chie...

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